Chart of the Day (CotD) Spain Covid and Excess Deaths

June 26, 2024

eldric.substack.com

This CotD was inspired by the following:

1)      Express News June 25, 2024 “Majorca warning as British holiday hotspot facing new threat amid over tourism protests” (see link: https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1914928/majorca-british-tourists-protest-covid-19 ).  As per the article: The outbreak of COVID-19 in Majorca comes off the back of a series of protests against tourism on the island.  The tourism crisis on the Spanish island of Majorca has taken another turn after the island braced itself for a spike in cases of Covid-19.  According to reports, the island has seen a spike in cases of a contagious variant of Covid-19 from the FLiRT family of pathogens that has sent cases skyrocketing. The latest crisis to hit Majorca comes as debate rages over the impact of tourists on the local economy.

2)      Express News April 19, 2024 “Tenerife holiday warning as tourists could be banned from wearing popular item on beaches” (see link: https://www.express.co.uk/travel/articles/1890298/tenerife-holiday-warning-flip-flop-ban?int_source=nba ).   As per the article: Holidaymakers in Spain may have to go without some of the world's most popular beach clothing choices.  Spanish authorities have been told to enact a ban on a popular clothing item worn by British tourists on beaches in Tenerife.  Flip flops, the footwear of choice for most Britons and other foreigners planning to spend a holiday on the beach, have become the latest target of Spaniards hoping to effect change in the local tourist industry.  Basque-born Ms Arteta said "If this country exploited its cultural-historical patrimony and accompanied it in all our theatres and auditoriums with ambitious programmes, we would attract cultural and not flip-flop tourism."   

Question from the CotD….is the spike in COVID-19 cases related to non-Spanish flip-flops?

The author of the CotD has combined analyses of Covid-19 and Excess Deaths (all causes) as these are related.

Panel 1   The first graph is a construct by the author as a standard CotD presentation which illustrates Covid-19 related deaths (CRDs) and vaccinations.   The vaccination program began in January 2021 with little effect on the increasing death rate until about mid-2021 as the death rate subsided somewhat to a relatively low rate indicating the vaccine program “appeared” to be effective (over 50 percent of the population was fully vaccinated by then). The death rate increased again in late 2021 as the booster program was initiated.  The CRD rate was relatively consistent during the vaccination roll-out period (yellow highlighted), but has subsided significantly since 2023 as vaccination/booster uptake rates have declined to near zero percent.

Panel 2   Observe the characteristic cyclical nature of deaths or all-cause mortality since 2015.  The “Blue” line represents data prior to March 2020 and the “Red” line represents data since the SARS CoV-2 pandemic was initiated in March 2020.  The “Green” line represents the “Expected” deaths (CotD Model) based on historical averages.  The author has utilized the five year period January 2015 to December 2019 in order to calculate an average normalized curve for Weekly Deaths.  The Expected (CotD Model) deaths incorporates an average 2 percent growth factor which appears to be a good match to the overall trend.  Once again, interesting to note the spike in deaths in early April 2020 (less than a month after the pandemic was officially announced) and again in January 2021 (just as the vaccine injections began).

Panel 3   This presents the magnified portion (January 2020 to January 2024) of the graph in Panel 2.   The “Orange” line represents “Excess Deaths” which is calculated by subtracting Expected Deaths from Official Deaths.  Excess Deaths peaked at 12,767 during the week ending April 7, 2020, less than a month after the pandemic was officially announced.

Panel 4   Based on the data and this author’s model 141,651 Excess Deaths have occurred since the start of the pandemic, of which 63,910 Excess Deaths (45 percent) have occurred since the start of Covid-19 injections in January 2021. This compares to 149,787 Excess Deaths since the start of the pandemic as per the ourworldindata.org website.

“Honesty is telling the truth to ourselves and others. Integrity is living that truth” Kenneth H. Blanchard