Chart of the Day (CotD) Taiwan Covid and Excess Deaths

February 29, 2024

eldric.substack.com

This CotD was inspired by two recent articles:

1)      Taipei Times “Covid-19 deaths hit 5-month high” (see link: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/01/31/2003812871  ).   From the article: The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) yesterday said that 64 COVID-19-related deaths were reported last week, the highest weekly number in five months. It said the JN.1 sub-variant has become the dominant strain. The CDC reminded people to pay close attention to the warning signs of severe complications, such as difficulty breathing or cyanosis (skin, lips or nails turning blue due to a lack of oxygen) and seek medical attention immediately if they occur. “We predict another wave of infections after the Lunar New Year holiday ... so we are still urging people to get the XBB.1.5-COVID-19 adapted vaccine,” Lo said, adding that a new batch of Novavax’s vaccine arrived in Taiwan on Monday and is likely to be distributed next week.

2)      CTV News April 28, 2022 “Taiwan faces largest COVID-19 outbreak yet” (see link: https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/taiwan-faces-largest-covid-19-outbreak-yet-1.5879810  ) .    From the article: Those who did not complete a full vaccination course are four times more likely to get moderate or severe symptoms compared to those who have gotten a booster, said Ho Mei-Shang, a vaccine expert in Taiwan who has also worked for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, according to Central News Agency.  Wang Zi-yu, 78, said she overcame her hesitation and got three doses of the COVID-19 vaccine. Many of her friends are concerned about the side effects of getting the COVID-19 vaccine, Wang added.

The author of the CotD has combined analyses of Covid-19 and Excess Deaths (all causes) as these are related. 

Panel 1   The first graph is a construct by the author as a standard CotD presentation which illustrates Covid-19 related deaths (CRDs) and vaccinations.  Taiwan’s Covid-19 Related Death (CRD) rate was essentially “zero” from the announcement of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in March 2020 through to May 2021.   The vaccination program started in Q2’2021 with very high injection uptake rates into Q1’2022.  The CRD rate remained essentially flat until May 2022 or about 4 to 5 months after the Booster injections program was initiated.  The CRD rate sky-rocketed as 14,365 Taiwan citizens died a CRD in 2022 alone (a period of 8 months).   The Booster vaccination-to-deaths correlation of near 100 percent in 2022 (high-lighted in yellow) is absolutely stunning as both profiles are identical.    The vaccination data ends by September 24 2023 in the ourworldindata.org website.  Since Q2’2023, the CRD rate has lessened significantly in concert with assumed low vaccine injection rates.

Panel 2   Observe the heterogeneous cyclical nature of deaths or all-cause mortality since 2015.  The “Blue” line represents data prior to March 2020 and the “Red” line represents data since the SARS CoV-2 pandemic was initiated in March 2020.  The “Green” line represents the “Expected” deaths (CotD Model) based on historical averages.  Data for the five year period January 2015 to December 2019 was utilized in order to calculate an average normalized curve for Monthly Deaths.  The Expected (CotD Model) deaths incorporates an average 2.0 percent growth factor which appears to be a good match to the overall pre-pandemic trend.  

Panel 3   This presents the magnified portion (January 2020 to December 2023) of the graph in Panel 2.   The “Orange” line represents “Excess Deaths” which is calculated by subtracting Expected Deaths from Official Deaths.

Panel 4   Based on the data and this author’s model, there have been 73,939 Excess Deaths since the start of the pandemic of which 69,914 (94.6 percent) have occurred since the start of Covid-19 injections in May 2021. This compares to 38,760 Excess Deaths since January 2020 as per the https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-deaths-covid?country=~TWN website.  

“If you do not have inner peace, you will not find it anywhere else…world peace begins in you” Unknown author