Chart of the Day (CotD) Philippines Covid and Excess Deaths

March 3, 2024

eldric.substack.com

This update CotD was inspired by a recent substack article via Super Sally’s Newsletter “Short Release: The Hottest Covid-19 Batches in the Universe Were Given Exclusively to the Philippines by WHO-COVAX. Philippines Hyper-excess Deaths in Q3-2021 Might Be Explained by Janssen Hot Lots!” (see link: https://supersally.substack.com/p/short-release-the-hottest-covid-19?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2 ). Super Sally’s post includes her testimony at the recent Philippines investigative committee hearing as well as her excellent power-point presentation.

From the article : A review of Philippines FDA Pharmacovigilance report has identified that certain brands of vaccines, based on numbers of doses administered, have contributed disproportionately to reports of adverse reactions following immunization. Philippines media contains many reports of people dying unexpectedly following Covid-19 Vaccination. Notably, there was a family of 1 younger and 1 older couple from Laguindingan CDO, all 4 of whom died in August 2021 within 5-18 days after Janssen doses. There was also a 23rd August incident in Batangas where 28 market vendors were said to have been injected with Janssen and died shortly after. DOH has denied any link between vaccination and the deaths.

The author of the CotD has combined analyses of Covid-19 and Excess Deaths (all causes) as these are related.

Panel 1 The first graph is a construct by the author as a standard CotD presentation which illustrates Covid-19 related deaths (CRDs) and vaccinations. Philippines exhibited a relatively low Covid-19 related death (CRD) rate into the first quarter of 2021. The vaccination program was initiated in March-April 2021 with the resulting acceleration of CRDs as evidenced by a three-fold slope increase. The booster vaccination program was initiated in November 2021. The vaccination to CRDs correlation is observable and definitely a concern. It is interesting to note that the vaccination data is no longer reported as of March 2023 in the ourworldindata.org website.

Panel 2 Observe the heterogeneous cyclical nature of deaths or all-cause mortality since 2015. The “Blue” line represents data prior to March 2020 and the “Red” line represents data since the SARS CoV-2 pandemic was initiated in March 2020. The “Green” line represents the “Expected” deaths (CotD Model) based on historical averages. Data for the five year period January 2015 to December 2019 was utilized in order to calculate an average normalized curve for Monthly Deaths. The Expected (CotD Model) deaths incorporates an average 5.0 percent growth factor which appears to be a good match to the overall pre-pandemic trend. The author utilized the 2023 data as per Super Sally’s Newsletter February 28, 2024 post “2023 Vital Statistics” (see: https://supersally.substack.com/p/2023-vital-statistics-preliminary?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2).

Panel 3   This presents the magnified portion (January 2020 to June 2023) of the graph in Panel 2.   The Orange and Light Blue line represents “Excess Deaths” which is calculated by subtracting Expected Deaths from Official Deaths. The Pink line represents “Hyper-Excess Deaths” (HEDs), a term dubbed by this author, in order to highlight the extreme level of these HEDs.  Based on this author’s model, a total of 277,462 Philippine citizens died in the 12 month period February 2021 to February 2022.  The peak HEDs occurred during the month of September 2021 at 68,412 deaths which equals to 2,280 Philippine citizens dying per day, which is shocking and tragic.

Panel 4   Based on the data and this author’s model, there have been 379,745 Excess Deaths since the start of the pandemic of which 344,801 (90.8 percent) have occurred since the start of Covid-19 injections in March 2021. This compares to 271,964 Excess Deaths since January 2020 as per the https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-deaths-covid?country=~PHL website. 

“The dead cannot cry out for justice, it is a duty of the living to do so for them” Lois McMaster Bujold

Ifugao People, Philippines