Chart of the Day (CotD) Philippines Covid and Excess Deaths

November 26, 2023

eldric.substack.com

This CotD was inspired by a recent article by Dr. William Makis “Excess Deaths in Philippines – 262,000 deaths in 2021, 67,000 in 2022 – Congressman Dan Fernandez (District of Laguna) launches Congressional Hearing. COVID-19 Vaccine Fatality is 1:240 people” (see link: substack.com/@makismd).   A quote from the hearing agenda “as the possible cause of such deaths threatens public order and compromises the human right to quality health services and goods by putting into question the overall safety and efficacy of the response of our healthcare system during the time of the pandemic.” 

The author of the CotD has combined analyses of Covid-19 and Excess Deaths (all causes) as these are related.

Panel 1   The first graph is a construct by the author as a standard CotD presentation which illustrates Covid-19 related deaths (CRDs) and vaccinations.   Philippines exhibited a relatively low Covid-19 related death (CRD) rate into the first quarter of 2021. The vaccination program was initiated in March-April 2021 with the resulting acceleration of CRDs as evidenced by a three-fold slope increase. The booster vaccination program was initiated in November 2021.  The vaccination to CRDs correlation is observable and definitely a concern.  It is interesting to note that the vaccination data is no longer reported as of mid-March 2023 in the ourworldindata.org website.

As per the Philippines Department of Health “ COVID-19 vaccines that are granted with Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by the Philippine Food and Drug Administration (FDA) are considered safe and effective based on the available evidence to date..”  Do you think the data supports these claims?

Panel 2   This graph presents the “Excess Deaths” (EDs) as per the ourworldindata.org website.  Observe the consistent nature of the EDs curve since 2015.  The “Blue” line represents EDs data prior to March 2020 and the “Red” line represents the Actual EDs data since the SARS CoV-2 pandemic was initiated in March 2020.  The “Green” line represents the “Expected” EDs based on historical averages.  The author has utilized the EDs data for the five year period January 2015 to December 2019 in order to calculate an average normalized curve.  The Green EDs were adjusted accordingly and incorporate a 1 percent growth factor which appears to be a good match to the overall trend.   The “Pink” line represents “Hyper-Excess Deaths” (HEDs), a term coined by this author, which is calculated by subtracting Expected EDs from the Actual EDs over the Covid Pandemic Phase.

Panel 3   As per this author’s model, 306,824 HEDs have occurred since March 2021 (the start of Covid-19 injections).   This modelled data results in 246,800 and 51,424 HEDs in 2021 and 2022, respectively, which generally agrees with the magnitude of Excess Deaths mentioned in the Dr. Makis substack.

“We make a living by what we get…but we make a life by what we give”  Sir Winston Churchill