Chart of the Day (CotD) Israel Covid and Excess Deaths

July 28, 2024

Jul 28, 2024

eldric.substack.com

The following articles are relevant to this CotD:

1) BBC News December 22, 2021 “Covid-19: Israel plans to give fourth dose of vaccine to over-60s” (see link: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-59749967 ). As per the article: A government panel of experts in Israel has recommended a fourth dose of a Covid-19 vaccine for all people aged over 60 and healthcare workers. Professor Nadav Davidovitch, the director of the School of Public Health at Ben Gurion University and an adviser to the government, told the BBC: “The vaccine is very safe, so having the fourth dose in terms of side effects this is something that is very minimal”.

2) The Times of Israel May 21, 2024 “Ombudsman: Health Ministry didn’t check 82% of reports on COVID vaccine side effects” (see link: https://www.timesofisrael.com/ombudsman-health-ministry-didnt-check-82-of-reports-on-covid-vaccine-side-effects/ ). As per the article: State Comptroller Matanyahu Englman’s office released a report Tuesday criticizing the Health Ministry’s conduct during the COVID-19 pandemic, revealing that the ministry didn’t process or analyze thousands of reports it had received about various vaccine side effects…the Comptroller’s Office said just 18 percent of reports were accurately recorded in the ministry’s database. The other 82% of reports were lost due to technical errors and system malfunctions. “Despite what was written in the report, the State of Israel was praised around the world for its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the ministry is proud of its practices and its professional and dedicated teams.”

The author of the CotD has combined analyses of Covid-19 and Excess Deaths (all causes) as these are related.

Panel 1 The first graph is a construct by the author as a standard CotD presentation which illustrates Covid-19 related deaths (CRDs) and vaccinations. The CRD rate was at a relatively low rate from the outset of the SARs-CoV-2 pandemic in March 2020, however, the CRD took-off by September 2020 and continued into Q2’2021. As is fairly typical, the CRD rate subsided somewhat (nearly flat) into the summer of 2021, however, continued at a high rate into Q4’2022. The vaccination program began in January 2021 with extremely high injection rates into Q2’2021 (a mere 4 months). The booster program was initiated in Q3’2021 with again, extremely high injection rates into Q1’2022. The CotD has added a new curve which combines Fully Vaccinated and Boosters. The vaccine-to-death correlation appears to be self-evident based on these mirror-like curves. The CRD rate has declined significantly since mid-2023 as vaccination uptake is essentially zero. Total CRDs to date represents 0.14 percent of the population.

Panel 2 Observe the cyclical nature of deaths or all-cause mortality since 2015. The “Blue” line represents data prior to March 2020 and the “Red” line represents data since the SARS CoV-2 pandemic was initiated in March 2020. The “Green” line represents the “Expected” deaths (CotD Model) based on historical averages. The author has utilized the five year period January 2015 to December 2019 in order to calculate an average normalized curve for Weekly Deaths. The Expected (CotD Model) deaths incorporates an average 1.0 percent growth factor which appears to be a good match to the overall trend.

Panel 3 This presents the magnified portion (January 2020 to January 2024) of the graph in Panel 2. The “Orange” line represents “Excess Deaths” which is calculated by subtracting Expected Deaths from Official Deaths.

Panel 4 Based on the data and this author’s model 20,153 Excess Deaths have occurred since the start of the pandemic, of which 15,861 Excess Deaths (79 percent) have occurred since the start of Covid-19 injections in December 2020. This compares to 14,706 Excess Deaths since the start of the pandemic as per the ourworldindata.org website.