Chart of the Day (CotD) Hong Kong Covid and Excess Deaths

December 29, 2023

eldric.substack.com

This CotD was inspired by two recent articles:

1)      South China Morning Post “Hong Kong receives first batch of Covid XBB variant vaccines, prioritises elderly” (see link: https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3243398/hong-kong-receives-first-batch-covid-xbb-variant-vaccines-prioritises-elderly  ).   From the article: As of Sunday, more than 80 per cent of the city population had received at least three doses of Covid vaccine.  More than 1.1 million of them had already taken the fourth jab.  Residents who have never caught the virus can get three vaccine shots for free, while the recovered should take one dose less than the uninfected ones.  The two scientific committees under the Centre for Health Protection jointly recommended the vaccine targeting the XBB variant…Experts of the committees reviewed data from the XBB variant vaccines made by US drug firms Pfizer and Moderna.

2)      South China Morning Post “Hong Kong Medical Experts Urge Coronavirus Vaccinations for young children as early as possible after death of 20-month-old with Covid-19 ” (see link: https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3238738/hong-kong-medical-experts-urge-coronavirus-vaccinations-young-children-early-possible-after-death-20 ) .    From the article: Lau Yu-lung, professor of paediatrics and adolescent medicine at the University of Hong Kong (HKU) “Whether it’s inactivated or mRNA vaccines, children under the age of five will need all three doses to achieve basic protection”.  Lau also urged parents to vaccinate their children against seasonal influenza, with the cause of death of the 20-month-old still unknown. The clinical diagnosis was of a Covid-19 infection that had been complicated by a rare type of brain disease that occurs following a viral infection known as acute necrotizing encephalopathy, as well as pneumonia, sepsis and shock.

The author of the CotD has combined analyses of Covid-19 and Excess Deaths (all causes) as these are related. 

Panel 1   The first graph is a construct by the author as a standard CotD presentation which illustrates Covid-19 related deaths (CRDs) and vaccinations.  Hong Kong Covid-19 Related Death (CRD) rate was remarkably low from March 2020 to February 2022.  The vaccination program started in late February 2021 with minimal impact on the “flattened” CRD rate.  Observe the astonishing near vertical rise of CRDs within 3 to 4 months after the booster program was initiated in October 2021.  The booster vaccine-to-deaths correlation of near 100 percent is in plain view. The CRD rate peaked at 9,134 Hong Kong citizens dying over the 90 day period of February 8 to May 8, 2022 (i.e. over 100 deaths per day!).  This data set is the most striking and shocking this author has encountered (there are no words).  The Hong Kong Department of Health under Pharmacy and Poisons Regulations states that “With the large-scale use of COVID-19 vaccines worldwide, more and more scientific and clinical data are reinforcing the safety and efficacy of the vaccines.”

Panel 2   As per the Hong Kong Department of Health Centre for Health Protection (see link: https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/features/106989.html.  

Panel 3   Observe the characteristic cyclical nature of deaths or all-cause mortality since 2015.  The “Blue” line represents data prior to March 2020 and the “Red” line represents data since the SARS CoV-2 pandemic was initiated in March 2020.  The “Green” line represents the “Expected” deaths (CotD Model) based on historical averages.  The author has utilized the data for the five year period January 2015 to December 2019 in order to calculate an average normalized curve for Weekly Deaths.  The Expected (CotD Model) deaths incorporates an average 3.5 percent growth factor which appears to be a good match to the overall trend.

Panel 4   This presents the magnified portion (January 2020 to September 2023) of the graph in Panel 2.   The “Orange” line represents “Excess Deaths” which is calculated by subtracting Expected Deaths from Official Deaths.

Panel 5   Based on the data and this author’s model, there have been 20,209 Excess Deaths since the start of the pandemic of which 19,074 Excess Deaths have occurred since the start of Covid-19 injections in February 2021. This compares to 16,260 Excess Deaths since February 2021 as per the https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-deaths-covid?country=~KOR website.

“If you ignore the dragon, it will eat you…If you try to confront the dragon, it will overpower you…If you ride the dragon, you will take advantage of its’ might and power” Chinese Proverb

2024 “Year of the Dragon”