Chart of the Day (CotD) Costa Rica Covid and Excess Deaths
July 12, 2024
eldric.substack.com
This CotD was inspired by the following:
1) SWI swissinfo.ch December 24, 2021 “Covid-19 mortality increased by 70% during 2021 in Costa Rica” (see link: https://www.swissinfo.ch/spa/la-mortalidad-por-la-covid-19-creci%c3%b3-un-70-durante-2021-en-costa-rica/47217362 ). As per the article: Doctor and report director Ronald Evans said the increase in new Covid-19 cases must be analyzed with caution, especially in light of the behavior of the Omicron variant. “It is expected that after the holidays, in January we will have a significant spike in cases caused by a coronavirus that insists on disrupting the lives of humanity, despite the fact that in many countries high percentages of their population have been vaccinated. The hope lies in the fact that, by displacing the delta variant, the omicron pandemic will have a shorter duration and cause fewer deaths due to the vaccine,” Evans said.
(Thanks to Gas Axe of gasaxe.substack.com for bringing this article to the attention of the CotD)
2) World Health Organization (WHO) “Debunking myths about COVID-19 vaccines in Costa Rica” (see link: https://www.who.int/about/accountability/results/who-results-report-2020-mtr/country-story/2021/costa-rica ). As per the article: An abundance of information—some accurate, some not—spread alongside the COVID-19 outbreak. The infodemic created a breeding ground for uncertainty and, as Costa Rica began to acquire COVID-19 vaccines through the WHO co-led COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access (COVAX) Facility and bilateral agreements, uncertainty fueled skepticism and distrust causing some people in the country to reject quality, safe, and efficacious COVID-19 vaccines. To empower people to make evidence-informed choices about COVID-19 vaccination, PAHO launched the “Debunking Myths About COVID-19 Vaccines” communication initiative in Costa Rica. Its inclusive messaging was transmitted through radio, TV, face-to-face events and virtual platforms, such as online training courses aimed to leave no courses aimed to leave no one behind.
The author of the CotD has combined analyses of Covid-19 and Excess Deaths (all causes) as these are related.
Panel 1 The first graph is a construct by the author as a standard CotD presentation which illustrates Covid-19 related deaths (CRDs) and vaccinations. The CRD rate was essentially zero from the outset of the SARs-CoV-2 pandemic in March 2020 until Q3’2020 upon which the CRD took-off at a very high rate. The vaccination program began in January 2021 with accelerated injection rates into Q4’2022. The vaccine-to-death correlation appears to be obvious based on the mirror-like relationship of the CRD rate and the vaccination rate curves since Q2’2021 (yellow highlighted). The CRD rate has subsided significantly as the vaccination/booster uptake rates have declined to near zero percent by Q4’2023.
Panel 2 Observe the heterogeneous cyclical nature of deaths or all-cause mortality since 2015. The “Blue” line represents data prior to March 2020 and the “Red” line represents data since the SARS CoV-2 pandemic was initiated in March 2020. The “Green” line represents the “Expected” deaths (CotD Model) based on historical averages. The author has utilized the five year period January 2015 to December 2019 in order to calculate an average normalized curve for Weekly Deaths. The Expected (CotD Model) deaths incorporates an average 13.0 percent growth factor which appears to be a good match to the overall trend. The 13.0 percent growth factor is by far the highest rate the CotD author has evaluated to date.
Panel 3 This presents the magnified portion (January 2020 to January 2024) of the graph in Panel 2. The “Orange” line represents “Excess Deaths” which is calculated by subtracting Expected Deaths from Official Deaths. Monthly deaths peaked at 3,162 during the month ending September 2021 which is 69 percent higher than previous historical spikes.
Panel 4 Based on the data and this author’s model 12,690 Excess Deaths have occurred since the start of the pandemic, of which 10,800 Excess Deaths (85 percent) have occurred since the start of Covid-19 injections in January 2021. This compares to 9,350 Excess Deaths since the start of the pandemic as per the ourworldindata.org website.
“Be strong enough to stand alone, be yourself enough to stand apart, but be wise enough to stand together when the time comes” Native American Wisdom
Thanks Eldric! Do you plan on doing an overall graph of excess deaths when/if you complete all the countries?
I'm sure you found lots of conflicting statistics well trying to put this together.
Thank you for clarifying my suspensions. I will be passing this on to people who will understand and can grasp the reality of what happened.