Chart of the Day (CotD) Bulgaria Covid and Excess Deaths

July 25, 2024

eldric.substack.com

The following articles are relevant to this CotD:

1)      The Sofia Globe June 30, 2024  “Bulgaria ends daily publication of official statistics on Covid-19” (see link: https://sofiaglobe.com/2024/06/30/bulgaria-ends-daily-publication-of-official-statistics-on-covid-19/  ).  As per the article: The ministry said that the World Health Organization had on May 5 2023 cancelled its declaration of a public health emergency regarding Covid-19.  Subsequently, in Bulgaria, the requirement for immunisation certificates, as well as for mandatory isolation and quarantine for persons ill with a coronavirus infection and those in contact with them, was phased out.

2)      BBC News July 21, 2024 “Covid-19 doesn't follow normal seasonal patterns, like other respiratory viruses – waves of infection can happen at any time of year.” (see link: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240719-why-covid-19-is-spreading-this-summer ).   As per the article: But this still leaves the question of why this year-round effect is mainly being seen with Covid-19 rather than other respiratory infections?  These are all still questions which could take years or decades to properly answer.  "Indeed before 2020, we used to call coronavirus infections summer colds because they were less obviously skewed towards the colder months, so this is not a surprise."

The author of the CotD has combined analyses of Covid-19 and Excess Deaths (all causes) as these are related.

Panel 1   The first graph is a construct by the author as a standard CotD presentation which illustrates Covid-19 related deaths (CRDs) and vaccinations.   The CRD rate was at a low rate from the outset of the SARs-CoV-2 pandemic in March 2020, however, the CRD took-off by October 2020 and continued into Q2’2021.  As is fairly typical, the CRD rate subsided somewhat into the summer of 2021, however, continued at a high rate into Q2’2022.  The vaccination program began in January 2021 with accelerated injection rates into Q4’2021. The booster program was initiated in October 2021 with extremely high injection rates into Q1’2022.   The vaccine-to-death correlation (yellow shaded) appears to be self-evident. The CRD rate has declined significantly since mid-2022 as vaccination uptake is essentially zero.  Total CRDs to date represents 0.57 percent of the population.

Panel 2   Observe the cyclical nature of deaths or all-cause mortality since 2015.  The “Blue” line represents data prior to March 2020 and the “Red” line represents data since the SARS CoV-2 pandemic was initiated in March 2020.  The “Green” line represents the “Expected” deaths (CotD Model) based on historical averages.  The author has utilized the five year period January 2015 to December 2019 in order to calculate an average normalized curve for Weekly Deaths.  The Expected (CotD Model) deaths incorporates an average 0.5 percent growth factor which appears to be a good match to the overall trend.

Panel 3   This presents the magnified portion (January 2020 to January 2024) of the graph in Panel 2.   The “Orange” line represents “Excess Deaths” which is calculated by subtracting Expected Deaths from Official Deaths.

Panel 4   Based on the data and this author’s model 57,089 Excess Deaths have occurred since the start of the pandemic, of which 39,848 Excess Deaths (70 percent) have occurred since the start of Covid-19 injections in January 2021. This compares to 62,912 Excess Deaths since the start of the pandemic as per the ourworldindata.org website.  

“If you call one wolf…you invite the pack” Bulgarian Proverb