Chart of the Day (CotD) Slovenia Covid and Excess Deaths

October 25, 2024

eldric.substack.com

The following articles are relevant to this CotD:

1)      EURACTIV January 22, 2022 “Slovenian epidemiologists oppose mandatory COVID vaccination, for now” (see link: https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/slovenian-epidemiologists-oppose-mandatory-covid-vaccination-for-now/  ).  As per the article: Slovenian epidemiologists working at the National Institute of Public Health have unanimously rejected mandatory vaccination against COVID-19, citing an absence of legal basis and concern about implementation.  “An attempt at introducing mandatory vaccination may trigger an adverse societal response and an unfavourable attitude to vaccination in general and other public-health measures,” they said.

2)      BBC News November 27, 2023 “Slovenia Covid: Thousands to get lockdown fine refunds” (see link: Slovenia Covid: Thousands to get lockdown fine refunds).   As per the article: Police issued almost €6m (£5.2m) worth of fines over a period of more than two years. But as of this week, legislation to refund that money is coming into force. It fulfils a pledge made by Prime Minister Robert Golob before his centre-left Freedom Movement was elected last year.   "The decrees they used to impose the fines were not based in law," he says. "The government knew that and if this means they now have to give the money back, that's how it goes. If you live in a country with the rule of law, that should apply to everyone."

The author of the CotD has combined analyses of Covid-19 and Excess Deaths (all causes) as these are related.

Panel 1   The first graph is a construct by the author as a standard CotD presentation which illustrates Covid-19 related deaths (CRDs) and vaccinations.   The vaccination program began in January 2021 with no positive effect on reducing the CRD rate.  The CRD rate subsided somewhat in mid-2021 indicating the vaccine was somewhat effective.  The booster injections began in August 2021 with significant uptake starting in October which continued into Q1’2022. The booster-to-death correlation appears to be self-evident as the CRD rate continued at an extremely high rate (i.e. 406 CRDs per month for the six month period ending March 11, 2022). The CRD rate peaked at 185 Slovenian citizens dying during the week ending February 26, 2022 (over 26 deaths per day) which was absolutely tragic to say the least. The CRD rate has subsided significantly and is essentially zero since Q2’2023 as injection uptake has ended.   Total CRDs to date represent 0.47 percent of the population.

Panel 2   Observe the cyclical nature of deaths or all-cause mortality since 2015.  The “Blue” line represents data prior to March 2020 and the “Red” line represents data since the SARS CoV-2 pandemic was initiated in March 2020.  The “Green” line represents the “Expected” deaths (CotD Model) based on historical averages.  The author has utilized the five year period January 2015 to December 2019 in order to calculate an average normalized curve for Weekly Deaths.  The Expected (CotD Model) deaths incorporates an average 1.0 percent growth factor which appears to be a good match to the overall trend.

Panel 3   This presents the magnified portion (January 2020 to December 2023) of the graph in Panel 2.   The “Orange” line represents “Excess Deaths” which is calculated by subtracting Expected Deaths from Official Deaths.

Panel 4   Based on the data set and this author’s model, 10,481 Excess Deaths have occurred since the start of the pandemic to December 31, 2023.  In addition, 6,295 Excess Deaths (60 percent) have occurred since the start of Covid-19 injections in January 2021. This compares to 6,086 Excess Deaths since the start of the pandemic as per the ourworldindata.org website.  Note that since April 2023, an additional 1,100 Excess Deaths have occurred with the trend appearing to curve upward.  This may indicate the Excess Death Rate is entering an exponential growth phase and the question is “why is this occurring?”

“Don’t ask the blind man for the way, nor a fool for advice” Slovenian Proverb